In this article, Bedrock’s Head of Investment Advisory, Helena Eaton, explores one of our Top Market Themes for 2026: Dealmaking set to rise through M&A and IPO activity.
At the start of the year, Helena wrote that strong equity markets and elevated valuations create a favourable backdrop for IPO issuance, while deregulation in the US should be favourable for the M&A transactions.
At the end of the first half of the year, she assesses how this theme has evolved so far.
Over the past few months, this theme has become increasingly prominent, and 2026 is on track to go down in history as “the year of mega IPOs.” Since the beginning of the year, IPO activity has been gaining momentum: during the first five months alone, 40 deals worth USD 28 billion were launched.1
June, however, has marked a significant shift in scale, with the launch of SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO, alongside confidential filings for two AI mega-IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI. The combined market value of these three companies is estimated at around USD 4 trillion. Strong equity markets and renewed investor optimism around the AI theme, reflected in a rally in AI hardware stocks since early April, have created a favourable backdrop for such listings.
The total amount raised in the SpaceX IPO was USD 75 billion, more than double the previous record set by Aramco’s IPO. SpaceX went public at approximately 95 times trailing revenue, which is notably high, particularly given that the company remains far from profitabilitya.
The IPO was multiple times oversubscribed, with a substantial portion of the offering allocated to retail investors, an unusual feature for deals of this scale. Following the offering, Elon Musk retains approximately 85% of the voting control of SpaceX; strong demand for the shares can therefore be interpreted as a vote of confidence in his long-term vision for the company.
On the first day of trading, SpaceX shares closed 19% above the IPO price; The stock has experienced a rollercoaster ride since then and, at the time of writing, is trading around the level at which it opened on the first day. The relatively small free floatb, combined with strong retail demand and rebalancing flows from passive index replication strategies, may support the share price in the near term. However, the supply of shares is expected to increase as pre-IPO shareholders begin to take profit. This is likely to occur gradually over the next 12 months, in line with a tiered lock-up release schedule designed to limit price volatility.2
Rising expenditures associated with AI development have increasingly pushed privately held companies to seek funding in public markets, rather than relying solely on private capital as they have historically.
Space, Satellite, and AI combination
While SpaceX combines rocket, satellite, and AI businesses, one of the primary motivations for its public listing may be the need to fund substantial AI-related capital expenditures, including potential investments in space-based computing infrastructure.
Earlier this year, SpaceX consolidated xAI, which includes the Grok chatbot, the X social media platform, and the Colossus data centres. In addition, cash flows generated by SpaceX’s profitable satellite business, Starlink, which accounted for roughly two-thirds of company revenue last year, may be used to cross-subsidise AI-related investment. At the consolidated level, however, SpaceX remains unprofitable.
Pure-Play AI IPOs
Two other mega-IPOs expected later this year aim to raise funding for pure AI businesses. OpenAI initiated the generative AI boom with the release of ChatGPT in 2022, while Anthropic has developed the increasingly popular Claude chatbot, now a key driver of its revenue growth.
Anthropic recently raised capital at a valuation of approximately USD 965 billion, while OpenAI was most recently valued at around USD 852 billion in private funding rounds. At the time of writing, details such as the IPO offering size and price per share have not yet been disclosed.
Both companies remain unprofitable, although Anthropic may be approaching its first quarter of positive operating profit; however, achieving net profitability is still likely several years away.3
Secondary Equity Funding for AI Expansion
Beyond IPOs, several large-cap technology companies are also considering or actively pursuing secondary equity issuance to support rising AI-related investment needs.
For example, Alphabet has announced an USD 80 billion equity offering to fund AI compute infrastructure and data centre expansion4, while Meta has reportedly been considering a large equity raise to finance its own AI build-out5.
With SpaceX’s post-IPO valuation exceeding USD 2 trillion, and expected valuations for OpenAI and Anthropic of around USD 1 trillion each, three major players are entering the public equity market and, eventually, stock indices. This raises important questions for investors regarding the potential impact on indices and the overall balance of equity supply and demand.
It is important to note that the relatively small free float of these companies post-IPO implies that their index weights will initially be limited. For example, SpaceX’s free float is estimated at around 4% of total market capitalisation; therefore, in free-float-adjusted indices such as MSCI World, the Nasdaq 100, and the Russell 1000, its weight is likely to remain well below 1%. The expected free float for OpenAI and Anthropic has not yet been publicly disclosed; however, if it falls within the 5–20% range, the initial impact on indices is also likely to be modest as well6.
Fast-entry rules for mega-IPOs are already in place for MSCI, Russell, and the Nasdaq 100 indices , meaning that SpaceX could be included in these indices within several weeks of its IPO. By contrast, inclusion in the S&P 500 is likely to take significantly longer, as there are no fast-track rules and the company must also meet profitability criteria before becoming eligible.
The fast inclusion of SpaceX into several equity indices will generate demand from passive replication strategies, such as ETFs, which will need to rebalance their portfolios to reflect the new index composition. This could provide additional near-term support for the share price.
During the first five months of the year, M&A activity picked up meaningfully. According to Goldman Sachs, approximately USD 900 billion of deals were announced, representing a 48% increase compared with the same period last year1.
Among the largest transactions to date are the completed acquisition of xAI by SpaceX ahead of its IPO, the announced acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery by Netflix, and the merger between Devon Energy and Coterra Energy. A number of other significant deals have been announced across the pharmaceutical, infrastructure, consumer goods, and telecommunications sectors.
To summarise, we expect the dealmaking trend to continue across both IPOs and M&A in the second half of the year, as market conditions remain supportive for capital raising in equity markets, as well as for corporate consolidation through the use of equity and debt financing.
If you’d like to explore this theme further, or discuss how you can take advantage of opportunities in this area, please get in touch with us at info@bedrockgroup.com.
Helena Eaton, Head of Investment Advisory
Helena joined Bedrock Group in 2023, bringing over 20 years in the financial industry including experience from J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Citi, Deloitte, and UNDP.
She holds an MBA from London Business School, a PhD in Economics, is a CFA Charterholder, and actively contributes to the CFA Institute as a curriculum reviewer.
Disclaimer: Certain statements included within constitute ‘forward-looking statements.’ These statements, which may include words like ‘believes,’ ‘expects,’ or similar expressions, are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ.
References:
[1] Corporate equity demand should outweigh record IPO supply in 2026, US Weekly Kickstart, Goldman Sachs, May 29, 2026.
[2] How SpaceX’s Tiered Lockup Aims to Help Post-IPO Trading, Morningstar, June 3, 2026.
[3] Anthropic set to hit $10.9 billion in revenue during second quarter, source says, CNBC, May 20, 2026.
[4] Alphabet $80 Billion Equity Sale Set to Break Fundraising Record, Bloomberg, June 2, 2026.
[5] Meta weighs big equity raising to finance AI infrastructure, Reuters, June 5, 2026.
[6] The IPO wave is historic. So is today’s market., J.P. Morgan Private Bank, June 2026.
[a] The multiple is estimated based on the fixed IPO price of USD 135 and trailing revenue for 2025.
[b] Free float refers to the proportion of shares outstanding that is available for trading in public equity markets, according to MSCI Free Float Data Methodology (March 2026).
[Image 1] Top 10 IPOs by proceeds since 2000 (2026 dollars, CPI-U adjusted), Refinitiv; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; various public sources, 2026.
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